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JASON COLEMAN

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A structural engineer with a love for tech, politics, science, and culture.
Articles Posted: 8  Links Seeded: 1601
Member Since: 1/2006  Last Seen: 8/04/2011

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Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

Seeded on Thu Mar 1, 2007 4:37 PM EST
Read ArticleArticle Source: National Geographic
science, climate-change, global-warming, climate, mars
Seeded by Jason Coleman
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Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.

Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.

Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.

…

The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun.

"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," [planetary physicist at Oxford University, Colin] Wilson explained.

"Mars has no moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.

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Jason Coleman

Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun holds something quite different in store.

"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."

It's pretty clear to me that time will show this individual is incorrect. Anyone who feels that greenhouse effect (something that has been pretty well understood for over 120 years) has little to do with the planet's climate has little chance of being right.

  • 4 votes
Reply#1 - Thu Mar 1, 2007 4:39 PM EST
space guy

Jason

I would not be so quick to make this determination.

Here is the recent history of sunspots and he is right that solar irradiance started to decline in the late 90's after a 1000 year peak that we have recently been in.

http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/sun/activity/sunspot_history.html

Here is the prediction for solar cycle 24 and 25.

The community is just about evenly split on whether or not cycle 24 is the beginning of a more pronounced fall off in sunspots and irradiance but the data for cycle 25 is fairly compelling.

http://www.smeter.net/propagation/sunspots/sunspot-cycle-forecasts.php

If the cycle declines as much as what most of the community suppose, there WILL be an effect on climate. How long this minimum is or how deep it will go is anyone's guess at this point.

Anyway, in 20-30 years we will know one way or another who is right on solar vs CO2 induced warming. My bet is with the solar guys.

  • 1 vote
#1.1 - Fri Mar 2, 2007 3:37 PM EST
Reply
Jason Coleman

Here's a brief article (in English) on some of Dr. Abdussamatov's research.

Real Climate has a post on similar claims regarding Mars made in the past, of which there appears to be little new evidence in Dr. Abdussamatov's claims. Grist has also included it in their extensive section onf global warming skepticism. I've also addressed this in previous posts and comments here on Newsvine, to the best of my ability.

  • 2 votes
Reply#2 - Fri Mar 2, 2007 12:31 PM EST
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