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A structural engineer with a love for tech, politics, science, and culture.
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Article Deals In Climate Myths, Not With Them

The so-called "hockey stick" graph (courtesy of Wikipedia; created by Robert A. Rohde using public data; ref. source for legend). While this common image itself does not appear in the IPCC's recent Summary for Policy Makers based on the Fourth Assessment Report, the theory that the current global average temperature is the highest it has been in roughly 1,300 years has been upheld by the National Academy of the Sciences and is clearly stated in the IPCC SPM.

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Human Events hopes to undermine climate science by spreading their own myths. Color me shocked. No actual science publication supports these claims but of course that doesn't stop a conservative political magazine from publishing them. However, since someone has to set the record straight, I might as well try.

  1. The U.S. is going it alone on Kyoto and global warming. – So far, the US isn't doing really anything on the issue of climate change. The notion that Kyoto is a "European Treaty" is false, as there are many non-European who have signed and ratified the agreement (something they forgot to tell you when they mentioned we signed it in this article). As for the claim that it's not working because in Europe, the statistic quoted doesn't really present the whole picture, unless it's already 2012.
  2. Global-warming proposals are about the environment. – I'm not sure who is demanding energy rations, but it's not the people proposing solutions to climate change. The key is alternate energy and reducing energy needs. Being more efficient has nothing to do with going without. Of course, if you're "lifestyle" is all about throwing your own money down the toilet, then by all means don't let me tell you have to save money while helping the environment.
  3. Climate change is the greatest threat to the world's poor. – Anyone who tells you that climate chang is "more accurately" described as weather is simply mistaken or lying to you; it's that simple. The only "adaption" we need in the way of technological advancements is in the form of alternate energy and more efficient energy uses. It's much harder to adapt to worsening drought or flooding.
  4. Global warming means more frequent, more severe storms. – It certainly may, as is pointed out in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment. From the SPM:

    Based on a range of models, it is likely [greater than 66% confidence] that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs.

    Oh, did I just quote that from where they said I couldn't? That's odd.

  5. Global warming has doomed the polar bears! – Polar bears can swim, just not forever. Arctic ice is melting and that's where polar bears live. The melting ice has been driving them further south. As for the Arctic cooling, the Arctic is the fastest warming region on the entire planet and any local, short term annomolies will be just that.
  6. Climate change is raising the sea levels. – The lie that somehow the IPCC report is distorted just doesn't hold water, especially when the level's rising. This remains a conservative and highly reviewed document, possibly the most peer-reviewed science document ever written. The fact that some opinion editors with no background in science would tell you otherwise means very little.
  7. The glaciers are melting! – The global ice mass held is glaciers is receding. Period. You simply cannot point to a few outliers and claim that is science. Of course, there's really no science in this article, anyway.
  8. Climate was stable until man came along. – Who even says that? Of course climate changes. The problem is that is currently changing at a rate an entire order of magnitude faster than previously known. Further, we are now most likely warmer than any time in the previous 1,300 years. Oh, the so-called "hockey stick" graph? It's still in the IPCC report, just in written format (sorry, but you have to read and not just look at pretty pictures):

    Paleoclimatic studies use changes in climatically sensitive indicators to infer past changes in global climate on time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. Such proxy data (e.g., tree ring width) may be influenced by both local temperature and other factors such as precipitation, and are often representative of particular seasons rather than full years. Studies since the TAR draw increased confidence from additional data showing coherent behaviour across multiple indicators in different parts of the world. However, uncertainties generally increase with time into the past due to increasingly limited spatial coverage. Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. … Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years.

    The notion that the "hockey stick" graph is wrong was proven false last summer when the National Academy of the Sciences determined that it was in fact, correct. Too had Human Events doesn't bother to read the news. Then again, it's not like paleoclimate is the only reason that we know global warming is happening.

  9. The science is settled -- CO2 causes global warming. – Man-made greenhouse gases have been determined to be the main cause of the recent changes in climate. The relation between the change in levels of CO2 and global average temperature is complicated, not simply a one-to-one. However, a relationship has been clearly established and while there are certainly other sources for climate change, the world's body of climatologists are very confident (with greater than 90% certainty) that it is us (man) that is doing the major influencing on the climate.
  10. It's hot in here! – It is most likely the warmest that it has been in over 1,300 years, based on paleoclimate proxies. Based on recorded temperatures, we are even more confident in the claim that it is hotter now than ever recorded. Playing shell games with what data you compare it to just doesn't change that. Pretending that being hot is so much better than an ice age is also a red-hearing; as is the case with saying that some problem you are not facing would be so much worse than the one you are doesn't make it go away.

Please consider this article to be on-going, as I'll add more information and links when I get the chance. For an even longer list of climate change myths, please see my previous article "25 Reasons Why You Should Understand Neil Boortz is Wrong."

Jason Coleman is a structural engineering who lives, practices, and writes in Richmond, VA, where he hope the truth wins out so his child will enjoy a better climate. This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution- Noncommercial- Share Alike 3.0 License.

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8.7
{"commentId":554391,"authorDomain":"jasonford"}

The problem for the everyday person (me) is that there are stories from "scientists" on both sides of the issue and I am not qualified to determine which sources are legitimate. I tend to lean toward the fact that there are things we can do as people to slow down global warming but I'm not sure if it's as bad as some people make it out to be.

{"commentId":554391,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"jasonford"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#1 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 9:47 AM EST
{"commentId":554413,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}

Jason: I understand your point. However, as I've pointed out the score is something like this: over 2,500 expert reviewers, over 800 contributers, and over 450 lead authors write the IPCC Fourth Assessment versus a relatively few skeptics on anthropogenic climate change (that are reasonably qualified on the subject). If it were a comparison of doctor's opinions on your health, who would you believe?

As far as being "as bad as some people make it out to be," I have to go with the IPCC as it's a relatively conservative report. It doesn't predict 20 foot sea level rises (although those have always been stated as the worst case scenario) but it does give some pretty dramatic predictions. I urge everyone to read what the real threat is and not just what either "skeptics" or "alarmists" claim about one another. The IPCC Fourth Assessment SPM [.pdf] is a great start and a fairly short and easy to digest read on the issue.

Now, that being said, we have the tools and the ability to help curb the problem (there's really no chance of us actually "cooling" the planet at this point). It's a matter of will. I hope you might consider reading my article on things we can do right now to help both save money and cut greenhouse gases.

{"commentId":554413,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"super-structure"}
  • 10 votes
#1.1 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 9:57 AM EST
{"commentId":554429,"authorDomain":"jasonford"}

I had already read your article and I was surprised by some of the things we were already doing. We replace old lightbulbs that burn out woth energy efficient lightbulbs. The temperature of our house is a balmy 63 degrees.

I liked your article mainly because it was not political. In addition to many of your suggestions being environmentally friendly, they are budget friendly as well.

{"commentId":554429,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"jasonford"}
  • 7 votes
#1.2 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:10 AM EST
{"commentId":554456,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}
In addition to many of your suggestions being environmentally friendly, they are budget friendly as well.

Less energy use = less energy costs. Nothing less political or more straight forward than that.

I'm glad you enjoyed it. To be honest, I'm not sure why this is even considered a political issue. Regulations, treaties, and carbon trading? Sure, that's policy. Saving money by using less gas or reducing your electric bill? That's just common sense!

{"commentId":554456,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"super-structure"}
  • 9 votes
#1.3 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:24 AM EST
{"commentId":554768,"authorDomain":"territan"}
Jason Coleman: I'm glad you enjoyed it. To be honest, I'm not sure why this is even considered a political issue. Regulations, treaties, and carbon trading? Sure, that's policy. Saving money by using less gas or reducing your electric bill? That's just common sense!

It became a highly charged political issue when a politician spoke about it and laid the blame squarely at the feet of industries with a history of supporting other politicians. What followed ever since is political pundits attacking each other and the scientists who are trying to collect information and draw conclusions.

Business has a long and tawdry history in politics, pushing for laws that give one industry a leg-up over another industry, or laws that give one company within an industry a leg-up over another company. This is just another one of those cases, except in this case it's business trying to get a leg-up over the facts. And putting up quite a fight.

{"commentId":554768,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"territan"}
  • 3 votes
#1.4 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:08 PM EST
{"commentId":556240,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}

Territan: I was referring to the article which I had referenced Jason Ford to, one regarding what consumers can do on a daily basis to reduce their energy needs (both for saving money and reducing greenhouse gas emissions on their part). I very much steered clear of policy in that article.

However, that does bring me to what I consider an important issue. The clear division between science and policy. It is one thing for the argument against climate change policy due to economic (or other considerations), no matter how I may feel those concerns are overstated and unfounded. However, for politicians to deny that a mature and well understood science requires action at all is simply inexcusable. Hoping to undermine the science itself in hopes of avoiding policy action is dishonest and harms everyone. It's not new and it's not limited to climate science. We must do what we can to ensure that the facts about the science are available and clear. Then we can demand that our policy makers discuss and respond accordingly based on those facts, not just what they choose to listen to or they invent themselves.

{"commentId":556240,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"super-structure"}
  • 3 votes
#1.5 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:57 AM EST
Reply
{"commentId":554900,"authorDomain":"MCLiepshutz"}

Bravo..well done.

{"commentId":554900,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"MCLiepshutz"}
  • 5 votes
Reply#2 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:56 PM EST
{"commentId":554911,"authorDomain":"onlineapps"}

Jason (Coleman, not Ford), just a few things to point out.

Human Events hopes to undermine climate science by spreading their own myths.

I'm assuming you're not calling me a Human Events editor. Actually, I'm pretty sure you're not (you're too smart for that), I just wanted to clarify that I'm not (and I actually never even heard of HE before).

Anyone who tells you that climate chang is "more accurately" described as weather is simply mistaken or lying to you; it's that simple.

Agreed. But HE isn't saying that.

Global warming has doomed the polar bears! – Polar bears can swim, just not forever. Arctic ice is melting and that's where polar bears live. The melting ice has been driving them further south. As for the Arctic cooling, the Arctic is the fastest warming region on the entire planet and any local, short term annomolies will be just that.

I wonder (and I'm honestly wondering, not saying sarcastically) what the temperature changes are recently. After all, it could also just be this particular year. Not because of global warming. Then again, it could be.

Another thing I'd like to know is what a scientist in the Arctic would say. After all, they're the guys who live with polar bears. I'd think they'd know. Problem is, I don't know any. The reason I say this is that a conservative talk show host (who I can't remember the name of) claimed that scientists at the Arctic say that the ice isn't receding. Don't know if it's true or not.

Climate change is raising the sea levels. – The lie that somehow the IPCC report is distorted just doesn't hold water, especially when the level's rising. This remains a conservative and highly reviewed document, possibly the most peer-reviewed science document ever written. The fact that some opinion editors with no background in science would tell you otherwise means very little.

Yeah, an editor without a scientific background isn't the best source. I'd consider the UN a good source though. From the article:

United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports refute the hysteria, finding no statistically significant change in the rate of increase over the past century of man's greatest influence, despite green claims of massive melting already occurring.

Moving on,

It is most likely the warmest that it has been in over 1,300 years, based on paleoclimate proxies. Based on recorded temperatures, we are even more confident in the claim that it is hotter now than ever recorded. Playing shell games with what data you compare it to just doesn't change that. Pretending that being hot is so much better than an ice age is also a red-hearing; as is the case with saying that some problem you are not facing would be so much worse than the one you are doesn't make it go away.

First, I agree that saying warm is better than gold is a red herring. Second, I'm not so sure about global warming. Remember the Ice Ages (figuratively, not literally as we weren't alive back then ;-))? That was a long period of time when it was cold. So why couldn't the reverse happen?

One more thing:
Just because the majority of scientists believe in this doesn't mean it is accurate. The majority of scientists once believed the earth was flat.

{"commentId":554911,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"onlineapps"}
  • 1 vote
Reply#3 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 2:03 PM EST
{"commentId":555396,"authorDomain":"vas"}
The majority of scientists once believed the earth was flat.

No, the majority of people did. It was scientific thinking that challenged that view, long, long before Christopher Columbus sailed. There's a nice Wikipedia article on the history of flat earth belief.

{"commentId":555396,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"vas"}
  • 9 votes
#3.1 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 6:18 PM EST
{"commentId":556233,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}

I did not assume you were the author/editor of the article in question as it would be COH violation to seed your own writing here. As for petty arguments between Newsvine users (or whatever you were alluding to when you sent readers to Mykola's unrelated article), I couldn't possibly care less. The author (a Christopher Horner, whoever that is) did say exactly that, however.

Climate -- or more accurately, weather -- remains one of the greatest challenges facing the poor. Climate change adds nothing to that calculus, however. Climate and weather patterns have always changed, as they always will.

Those two terms simply cannot be interchanged as they mean two very different (albeit related) things.

I wonder (and I'm honestly wondering, not saying sarcastically) what the temperature changes are recently. After all, it could also just be this particular year. Not because of global warming. Then again, it could be.

Where, and why would just one year matter in a 50-100 year global trend? However, there is a great deal of data in the SPM if you wish to read it. However, by just asking about what is happening in the past year, you seem to be falling in the same trap as the author: confusing weather with climate.

Another thing I'd like to know is what a scientist in the Arctic would say. After all, they're the guys who live with polar bears. I'd think they'd know. Problem is, I don't know any. The reason I say this is that a conservative talk show host (who I can't remember the name of) claimed that scientists at the Arctic say that the ice isn't receding. Don't know if it's true or not.

Not personally knowing any artic climate scientists is a poor reason to trust the opinion of some radio opinion spinner (be it Rush Limbaugh or Al Franken). I'm not sure that anyone lives with the polar bears, but there is also references to the Arctic ice in the IPCC which clearly show the author of this piece to be wrong. From the IPCC SPM:

Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years.
…Satellite data since 1978 show that annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per decade.

You said:

Yeah, an editor without a scientific background isn't the best source. I'd consider the UN a good source though.

Than you should consider reading the IPCC document in question (and not listening to political spin on talk radio when it comes to science):

Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003, about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm per year. Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear. There is high confidence that the rate of observed sea level rise increased from the 19th to the 20th century.

It doesn't sound like they're saying that's insignificant to me.

You said:

So why couldn't the reverse happen?

It can and it does, as the Earth's climate cycles in and out of cool periods. However, the rapid warming observed now cannot be explained by these natural cycles of natural forcing. That's the entire question that climatologists have been studying. The IPCC report represents the state of the art in that field and reading their SPM goes a long way to answering that question for you.

Just because the majority of scientists believe in this doesn't mean it is accurate. The majority of scientists once believed the earth was flat.

That's a strawman for the simple fact that the people who once thought the Earth was flat weren't scientists, as Vas points out. It was the scientists who began to make observations to the contrary (along with many sea-faring peoples).

{"commentId":556233,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"super-structure"}
  • 5 votes
#3.2 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:50 AM EST
{"commentId":556731,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}
Another thing I'd like to know is what a scientist in the Arctic would say.

From a seed today by Benno Hansen titled "Polar Scientists Welcome 'Strong And Definitive Statement' On Climate Change:"

Dr David Carlson, Director of the IPY International Programme Office says: "IPCC has made a strong and definitive statement about global climate change, a change which hits first and hardest at the poles."

Recent observations of the polar regions in 2006 have prompted alarm from experts that ice melting rates could be exceeding even IPCC projections.

Dr Carlson added: "These and other changes in physical and ecological systems of polar regions, all observed over the past two years indicate a region undergoing rapid change and in need of comprehensive attention."

{"commentId":556731,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"super-structure"}
  • 4 votes
#3.3 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:49 PM EST
Reply
{"commentId":555798,"authorDomain":"kurtstack"}

Excellent job again Jason. You are certainly well versed on this topic. I enjoy reading your articles. My biggest suggestion to people out there is to telecommute, or use alternative work schedules. Telecommuting saves time, reduces stress, helps the environment, reduces traffic congestion and saves you money. Everybody who can telecommute should be doing it.

{"commentId":555798,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"kurtstack"}
  • 6 votes
Reply#4 - Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:48 PM EST
{"commentId":556218,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}

I couldn't agree more. I do wish that I worked in an environment myself that allowed that (it's difficult to telecommute to construction sites; although it is hard to overstate what digital photography has done in this industry to reduce travel). There are certainly many jobs that lend themselves to telecommuting, even if only one or two days a week. It also has so many benefits beyond the reduction in energy, which you pointed out. Thanks.

{"commentId":556218,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"super-structure"}
  • 3 votes
#4.1 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:31 AM EST
{"commentId":556939,"authorDomain":"webweasel"}

Unfortunately there are a lot of people that are wary of telecommuting because if you can do your job from home somebody in Bangalore can do it cheaper.

{"commentId":556939,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"webweasel"}
  • 1 vote
#4.2 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 2:12 PM EST
{"commentId":556963,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}

True, there are some jobs that can be done entirely by correspondence and are likely candidates for overseas outsourcing. However, there are many more jobs in which a worker can stay home two out of five days a week, coming in 'the office' or doing 'field work' the others. This allows companies to reduce overhead by rotating out days workers are 'in' with them sharing workspaces. It's becoming fairly common in many larger corporate environments where cutting down on 20% of your leasing space saves large amounts of money (both in lease costs as well as energy needs). I believe this arrangement still allows the worker to receive tax benefits for some of their living expenses as job related.

{"commentId":556963,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"super-structure"}
  • 1 vote
#4.3 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 2:19 PM EST
{"commentId":557562,"authorDomain":"webweasel"}

Jason, you area assuming most outsourcing is done for practical and well thought out reasons. It's not. Outsourcing is how directors cut the budget and get big bonuses. Quality and efficiency are not the concern just short term savings. When the sales droids from the big outsourcing firms come into a company they look for anything that can be done via the network.

Also, managers like to look over their empire of cube drones. Telecommuting makes their empire appear smaller.

Telecommuting is a really good way to work for a lot of people. Unfortunately powerful corporate politics keep it from being used effectively. I wouldn't expect a change in this area until there is a financial boon via tax breaks or such for having workers telecommute.

{"commentId":557562,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"webweasel"}
  • 1 vote
#4.4 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 6:38 PM EST
Reply
{"commentId":556236,"authorDomain":"tschreck"}

jason -

thanks for doing this.

i'm proud to have you as a friend.

{"commentId":556236,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"tschreck"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#5 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:51 AM EST
{"commentId":556766,"authorDomain":"onlineapps"}

Thanks for this Jason. I'm going back and do some research on what the other side (the anti-global warming) says, and then put the two together, and then decide which one I think is right.

{"commentId":556766,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"onlineapps"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#6 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:03 PM EST
{"commentId":556782,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}
the other side (the anti-global warming)

Huh? I'm anti-global warming! The "other side" are the one's who apparently do not care that it is happening. Of course you'll have to decide for yourself, but I recommend getting the science from actual scientists instead pundits who know nothing of what they're talking about.

{"commentId":556782,"threadId":"79904","contentId":"587145","authorDomain":"super-structure"}
  • 3 votes
#6.1 - Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:09 PM EST
Reply
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