
The so-called "hockey stick" graph (courtesy of Wikipedia; created by Robert A. Rohde using public data; ref. source for legend). While this common image itself does not appear in the IPCC's recent Summary for Policy Makers based on the Fourth Assessment Report, the theory that the current global average temperature is the highest it has been in roughly 1,300 years has been upheld by the National Academy of the Sciences and is clearly stated in the IPCC SPM.
Human Events hopes to undermine climate science by spreading their own myths. Color me shocked. No actual science publication supports these claims but of course that doesn't stop a conservative political magazine from publishing them. However, since someone has to set the record straight, I might as well try.
Global warming means more frequent, more severe storms. – It certainly may, as is pointed out in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment. From the SPM:
Based on a range of models, it is likely [greater than 66% confidence] that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs.
Oh, did I just quote that from where they said I couldn't? That's odd.
Climate was stable until man came along. – Who even says that? Of course climate changes. The problem is that is currently changing at a rate an entire order of magnitude faster than previously known. Further, we are now most likely warmer than any time in the previous 1,300 years. Oh, the so-called "hockey stick" graph? It's still in the IPCC report, just in written format (sorry, but you have to read and not just look at pretty pictures):
Paleoclimatic studies use changes in climatically sensitive indicators to infer past changes in global climate on time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. Such proxy data (e.g., tree ring width) may be influenced by both local temperature and other factors such as precipitation, and are often representative of particular seasons rather than full years. Studies since the TAR draw increased confidence from additional data showing coherent behaviour across multiple indicators in different parts of the world. However, uncertainties generally increase with time into the past due to increasingly limited spatial coverage. Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. … Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years.
The notion that the "hockey stick" graph is wrong was proven false last summer when the National Academy of the Sciences determined that it was in fact, correct. Too had Human Events doesn't bother to read the news. Then again, it's not like paleoclimate is the only reason that we know global warming is happening.
Please consider this article to be on-going, as I'll add more information and links when I get the chance. For an even longer list of climate change myths, please see my previous article "25 Reasons Why You Should Understand Neil Boortz is Wrong."
Jason Coleman is a structural engineering who lives, practices, and writes in Richmond, VA, where he hope the truth wins out so his child will enjoy a better climate. This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution- Noncommercial- Share Alike 3.0 License.
The problem for the everyday person (me) is that there are stories from "scientists" on both sides of the issue and I am not qualified to determine which sources are legitimate. I tend to lean toward the fact that there are things we can do as people to slow down global warming but I'm not sure if it's as bad as some people make it out to be.
I had already read your article and I was surprised by some of the things we were already doing. We replace old lightbulbs that burn out woth energy efficient lightbulbs. The temperature of our house is a balmy 63 degrees.
I liked your article mainly because it was not political. In addition to many of your suggestions being environmentally friendly, they are budget friendly as well.
Jason Coleman: I'm glad you enjoyed it. To be honest, I'm not sure why this is even considered a political issue. Regulations, treaties, and carbon trading? Sure, that's policy. Saving money by using less gas or reducing your electric bill? That's just common sense!
It became a highly charged political issue when a politician spoke about it and laid the blame squarely at the feet of industries with a history of supporting other politicians. What followed ever since is political pundits attacking each other and the scientists who are trying to collect information and draw conclusions.
Business has a long and tawdry history in politics, pushing for laws that give one industry a leg-up over another industry, or laws that give one company within an industry a leg-up over another company. This is just another one of those cases, except in this case it's business trying to get a leg-up over the facts. And putting up quite a fight.
Bravo..well done.
Jason (Coleman, not Ford), just a few things to point out.
Human Events hopes to undermine climate science by spreading their own myths.
I'm assuming you're not calling me a Human Events editor. Actually, I'm pretty sure you're not (you're too smart for that), I just wanted to clarify that I'm not (and I actually never even heard of HE before).
Anyone who tells you that climate chang is "more accurately" described as weather is simply mistaken or lying to you; it's that simple.
Agreed. But HE isn't saying that.
Global warming has doomed the polar bears! – Polar bears can swim, just not forever. Arctic ice is melting and that's where polar bears live. The melting ice has been driving them further south. As for the Arctic cooling, the Arctic is the fastest warming region on the entire planet and any local, short term annomolies will be just that.
I wonder (and I'm honestly wondering, not saying sarcastically) what the temperature changes are recently. After all, it could also just be this particular year. Not because of global warming. Then again, it could be.
Another thing I'd like to know is what a scientist in the Arctic would say. After all, they're the guys who live with polar bears. I'd think they'd know. Problem is, I don't know any. The reason I say this is that a conservative talk show host (who I can't remember the name of) claimed that scientists at the Arctic say that the ice isn't receding. Don't know if it's true or not.
Climate change is raising the sea levels. – The lie that somehow the IPCC report is distorted just doesn't hold water, especially when the level's rising. This remains a conservative and highly reviewed document, possibly the most peer-reviewed science document ever written. The fact that some opinion editors with no background in science would tell you otherwise means very little.
Yeah, an editor without a scientific background isn't the best source. I'd consider the UN a good source though. From the article:
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports refute the hysteria, finding no statistically significant change in the rate of increase over the past century of man's greatest influence, despite green claims of massive melting already occurring.
Moving on,
It is most likely the warmest that it has been in over 1,300 years, based on paleoclimate proxies. Based on recorded temperatures, we are even more confident in the claim that it is hotter now than ever recorded. Playing shell games with what data you compare it to just doesn't change that. Pretending that being hot is so much better than an ice age is also a red-hearing; as is the case with saying that some problem you are not facing would be so much worse than the one you are doesn't make it go away.
First, I agree that saying warm is better than gold is a red herring. Second, I'm not so sure about global warming. Remember the Ice Ages (figuratively, not literally as we weren't alive back then ;-))? That was a long period of time when it was cold. So why couldn't the reverse happen?
One more thing:
Just because the majority of scientists believe in this doesn't mean it is accurate. The majority of scientists once believed the earth was flat.
The majority of scientists once believed the earth was flat.
No, the majority of people did. It was scientific thinking that challenged that view, long, long before Christopher Columbus sailed. There's a nice Wikipedia article on the history of flat earth belief.
Excellent job again Jason. You are certainly well versed on this topic. I enjoy reading your articles. My biggest suggestion to people out there is to telecommute, or use alternative work schedules. Telecommuting saves time, reduces stress, helps the environment, reduces traffic congestion and saves you money. Everybody who can telecommute should be doing it.
Unfortunately there are a lot of people that are wary of telecommuting because if you can do your job from home somebody in Bangalore can do it cheaper.
Jason, you area assuming most outsourcing is done for practical and well thought out reasons. It's not. Outsourcing is how directors cut the budget and get big bonuses. Quality and efficiency are not the concern just short term savings. When the sales droids from the big outsourcing firms come into a company they look for anything that can be done via the network.
Also, managers like to look over their empire of cube drones. Telecommuting makes their empire appear smaller.
Telecommuting is a really good way to work for a lot of people. Unfortunately powerful corporate politics keep it from being used effectively. I wouldn't expect a change in this area until there is a financial boon via tax breaks or such for having workers telecommute.
jason -
thanks for doing this.
i'm proud to have you as a friend.
Thanks for this Jason. I'm going back and do some research on what the other side (the anti-global warming) says, and then put the two together, and then decide which one I think is right.
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