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Global warming is likely to affect cyclones and hurricanes, concludes a new statement from 125 experts, but they say the evidence for this to date is inconclusive.
"There could be an effect but it's impossible to say for sure," says Julian Heming of the UK Met Office. The statement was issued at the end of a workshop organised by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The workshop concluded that the increasing economic damage caused by tropical cyclones is to a large extent the result of "increasing coastal populations […] and, perhaps, a rising sensitivity of modern societies to disruptions of infrastructure".
The influence of climate change on tropical cyclones – a term used to describe hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones – is a hotly contested debate. It gained public attention after 2004 and 2005 brought an unusual number of high-impact storms to Japan, China and the US. The events culminated in 1300 deaths, mainly through flooding in New Orleans, when Hurricane Katrina hit the US coast.
Temperature records and computer models suggest the warming climate will generate more frequent and powerful storms. But differences of opinion over the data and methods divide the scientific community.
Global Warming Link to Hurricanes Likely But Unproven
Article Source: New Scientist- Enjoy this article? Help vote it up the 'Vine.
- Public Discussion (1)
The tropical storm aspect of climate change is certainly one of the bigger unknowns (and one that skeptics have enjoyed pouncing upon). However, I think that the various subjects need to be cleared up. First, there is the question of global warming, which is a documented phenomena and there's no doubt it is occurring. The question is, what is causing it: natural climate cycles or human created greenhouse gases? Evidence generally points to the latter.
The second question is, what effects will further warming have? As this article points out, some feel that we should expect to see changes in the patterns of tropical storms (particularly more storms of higher intensity). Clearly, this is part of the predictive aspects of science and we cannot know for sure until after the fact. Given the time-scale, that means quite a few years from now. Last year's season certainly seemed to support that hypothesis while the current season in it's final whimpers seems to have not (although, globally, the season has been far worse outside of the North Atlantic). It's important to note that no one storm (i.e. – Katrina) nor even one single season represent more than a data point. We cannot confirm (or otherwise) a trend until after many data points.
In short, the question of storms is not one that reflects on the question of anthropogenic climate change. More or less storms do not answer the first question. I rarely see this spelled out in most media stories and I think it is an important concept for both supporters and skeptics of either question. One is looking for causation of a phenomena and the other is attempting to use predictive patterning.
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