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Monsoons are critical to India's farmers. If the rains don't come, there can be serious consequences for the country's agriculture-driven economy. Predicting the severity of a drought has been a tricky business, but a new study suggests that the key to better forecasts depends on a detailed understanding of a warming of the Pacific Ocean, called El Niño.
Over the past 132 years, every Indian drought has come in an El Niño year. But not every El Niño has been accompanied by a drought. In 1997, a predicted drought never materialized. Worse, in both 2002 and 2004, unexpected and severe droughts surprised a completely unprepared country.
