Global Warming Likely Causing More Heat Waves, Scientists Say

News Type: Event — Seeded on Wed Aug 2, 2006 5:04 PM EDT

Article Source: National Geographic

science, global-warming, climate-change, heat-waves

Global warming has loaded the dice in favor of heat waves and may be to blame for the scorching weather across much of the United States and Europe this summer, according to several of the world's leading climate scientists.

Scientists at the University of Oxford in England and the Hadley Centre for Climate Research and Prediction in Exeter, England, recently concluded that human-induced global warming has increased the odds by a factor of around six that Europe will see summer heat waves as extreme as that of 2003.

[Kevin] Trenberth said only 7 of the last 25 years have had above normal precipitation over land. And a recent statistical analysis of global temperature records indicates that the number of really hot days and really hot nights is increasing almost everywhere around the world.

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{"commentId":232396,"authorDomain":"super-structure"}

Jason Coleman

Well, the first argument I usually see from climate change skeptics is that if global warming was real, then we wouldn't ever see record low temperatures, right? Well, I would really like to believe the reasons why that is a completely ridiculous statement would be obvious to everyone, but since I see it so often either it's not or some people would rather be coy about the truth.

First of all, meteorological records for temperatures have been kept in most places for a relatively short period. Therefore, we're not really comparing either the highs or the lows for any single location to an especially large database. Secondly, the issue of climate change is a global one (that's why it's called global warming, and not St. Petersburg, FL warming, for example). Of real interest are the places where we have a long, reliable record of temperatures taken at regular intervals. When we look at these on annual averages and then average for the entire planet, we can clearly see that the global annual average temperature is rising at a dramatic rate. Some record lows reported here and there are nothing more than noise in the overall signal.

If someone chooses to insist on looking at local record low temperatures for any given day of the year, then we should be asking this question: how many record lows versus record highs are set over the course of the year? If the global annual average temperature was constant, then we'd expect them to be the same number. Now, plot the difference in those record highs and lows for each year for a number of years in a row. If global warming wasn't happening, there would be little to no change. If it is, you can expect that for most areas to see more record highs than record lows as time goes on.

In short, pointing to one outlier (and I'm being generous by even using that term here) on a portion of the graph proves only a complete misunderstanding of the subject matter, not that global warming isn't real.

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2 votes

#1 - Wed Aug 2, 2006 5:32 PM EDT

{"commentId":232413,"authorDomain":"hallo"}

Daniel A. HalloDeleted

{"commentId":234290,"authorDomain":"KevinR"}

KevinR

If you think about it. Global Warming could be linked to everything wrong on the Earth. Oh wait, I'm sorry that title belongs to Gbush now. /sarcasm

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#3 - Thu Aug 3, 2006 2:50 PM EDT

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Jason Coleman

A lot of things could be linked to global warming; some things most certainly are more likely to be a result than others. Climate extremes such as flooding, heat waves, drought are certainly to be more likely under a warming planet.

While our President's role in many things is certainly overstated a lot (as is true of every president), I do feel that it would be good for America's short term and long term futures if he were to be more pro-active on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. I suppose, though, it goes without saying that we disagree on this, as you have expressed a great deal of doubt on global warming. However, as evidence mounts, the lack of action is going to be forever unfavorable on us Americans who choose to deny solid science in favor of convenience and political stubbornness.

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#3.1 - Thu Aug 3, 2006 4:48 PM EDT

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JASON COLEMAN

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Global Warming Likely Causing More Heat Waves, Scientists Say

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